Betting markets have shortened the odds on Nigel Farage becoming the next UK prime minister, though the Reform UK leader will still need to wait before he can realistically occupy No. 10 Downing Street.

Farage has presided over Reform UK’s dramatic surge in support.

What began as a relatively small party ahead of the previous election has now grown into a serious contender for the next general election, with the Brexit strategist enjoying a remarkable rise in political influence.

Following a remarkable 677 council seat victories in May’s local elections, Reform UK is looking to expand its influence further across the country.

The party narrowly missed securing a Scottish Parliament seat in June and is currently polling around 30% nationally.

It’s no surprise that political betting sites have sharply shortened the odds on Nigel Farage, with some markets now viewing him as a strong contender for the next prime ministership.

However, there remains one major obstacle Farage must overcome before he can confidently anticipate moving into Downing Street after the next general election.

Nigel Farage Odds: Chance To Be Next PM

The most recent betting markets offer encouraging news for Reform UK supporters.

Farage is now priced at 7/4 with BetMGM to replace Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, down from 2/1 in May.

Reform UK is currently Evens (50% probability) to win the most seats in the next general election, while Labour lingers at 6/4 (40%) according to betting apps.

The Reform leader has arguably never been in a stronger position. His messaging is resonating with large sections of the British electorate, and the party’s popularity continues to rise.

Recent polls put Reform UK roughly seven points ahead of Labour and 13 points clear of a struggling Conservative Party.

If a general election were held tomorrow, Reform would likely emerge as the largest party in Parliament, even if they fell short of a full majority.

Despite these impressive numbers, Farage doesn’t need to concern himself with parliamentary arithmetic just yet.

The next UK election is still four years away, and Labour has shown no inclination to call a snap poll.

Will Farage Be The Next Prime Minister?

Four years is an eternity in politics, yet Farage currently finds himself in a strong position. He draws support from disaffected Conservative and Labour voters who are eager for societal change and doubt that Starmer’s government can deliver it.

Populist movements are also gaining traction across Europe. While some Western democracies, such as Canada and Australia, have resisted Trump-style politics, others appear to be embracing similar agendas.

The UK’s political landscape remains unusually complex. Reform UK captured four million votes in the 2024 election, yet won only a handful of seats under the First Past the Post system.

Reform UK would likely perform much better if a general election were held today, but the party is still in the process of fielding candidates across all 650 constituencies.

As a relatively small and primarily protest-oriented party, there remains considerable uncertainty about how Farage and his team would handle complex policy areas such as welfare, taxation, and public spending.

Reform UK doesn’t fit neatly on the traditional left-right political spectrum—a reality made clear during the Brexit era.

Governing is far more challenging than protesting, and Reform UK’s first forays into local government could backfire if they fail to outperform the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens who held these positions previously.

Additionally, public opinion still favours Keir Starmer over Nigel Farage.

So, could Farage realistically become prime minister? Betting odds suggest it’s within the realm of possibility, but Reform must demonstrate responsible leadership over the next four years, while Farage works to improve his public image.

Any setbacks in upcoming local elections would serve as an early warning sign that the party’s momentum might be slowing.

Can Starmer Overcome Farage?

Farage’s path to No. 10 isn’t guaranteed, as Sir Keir Starmer still has opportunities to reclaim support. The Labour leader has tried appealing to Reform voters by adopting some right-leaning policies, particularly on immigration, in an effort to win back those disenchanted with traditional parties.

Starmer has four years to refine his strategy, giving him ample time to stage a political comeback.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are unlikely to fall below 17 points in national polls. Rising figures such as Kemi Badenoch could attract new support, though it remains uncertain which voter base she will pull from.

Farage’s most plausible route to power may involve influencing the Tories from within—potentially replacing Badenoch as leader and merging Reform UK into a larger, more established party.

This strategy isn’t without its risks, given the Conservatives’ tarnished reputation following the Johnson and Truss administrations.

Starmer can only outpace Farage if Labour delivers tangible prosperity during this parliamentary term. Many voters turned to Reform because they were seeking real change and an improved standard of living.

While the political debate often veers into anti-immigration and anti-elite rhetoric, the ultimate driver for most voters is economic well-being. Farage offers grand promises, but Starmer is constrained by the practicalities of governing.

The coming years promise to be a fascinating test of political strategy and public sentiment.